Thursday, February 7, 2013

Cuusoo Analytics: Days to 10k

Bugdroid Achieves 10k Support

The Bugdroid, the Android OS mascot has received the 10,000 support it needs to be reviewed for production on Cuusoo.

It is still awaiting an official comment however.   I will update this article with more details after the comment is posted.

Team Jigsaw Launches Steampunk Project

Team Jigsaw, the group that brought us the amazingly presented Thinking with Portals project, that reached 10k in a few days, is at it again with Steam Rod.  This time treating us with a high quality Steampunk set that many LEGO fans have been looking for for years.

I am a bit saddened to say I was hoping on entering my own steampunk train on Cuusoo, but I am thrilled to see an awesome design worthy of production (and better than anything I had in the works by far).

Team Jigsaw is making it clear in the project that they intend for the project to result in a single very large set with everything shown:

A full train for the four good guys and a large aircraft, a motorcycle, and a personal flying rig for the three "baddies."  The description also comes complete with mini bios of each character.

Whether or not LEGO will take them up on such a large scale build remains to be seen, but if support level are as high and fast as their last project, LEGO might just give them the green light.

I am additionally elated to see Team Jigsaw using their professionalism and talent on a creator generated IP, so that their project cannot be rejected on any pre-existing brand issue conflicts.

I am equally happy to see that this time around it appears that Team Jigsaw has no new parts.

If you don't like Steampunk, please support this project as a favor to the  many, many LEGO fans that do!

Firefly Inspired MMO trying to get off the ground

As time goes on I am going to be expanding this site to not only be about Cuusoo but about about the theme behind Cuusoo.  The idea of passionate people attempting to get strange, wonderful, and crazy ideas and products out to the masses.

In this vein I am happy to share this link and video to an attempt to make a Firefly inspired MMO.

Approaching 1k Milestone

The- MegaMan Project - has been enjoying quite a bit of support lately from various sources and jumped past the 1k milestone yesterday.

Wild Encounters
Support Level: 978
Support Level: 943
Dragon Slayers
Support Level: 938

Deadline Review

The next review is March 4rd, 2012. That is 25 days from today.  The Bugdroid joined the Exo Suit as achieved projects and there is no doubt that Zelda will be joining them now.  Only a massive campaigning effort will get any of the other currently existing projects to 10k in time for this review deadline.  


Do you want to speed a project up?

Projects can get to 10k much faster than what is shown here with active fan support. This link has many examples of how fans can help out their favorite projects. 


Days to 10K

 I have been collecting a lot of data on project growth and hope to use it to better model the rate at which projects achieve 10k.  At this point now though I am using a long term linear extrapolation.  This puts the - The Legend of Zelda Project - at 4 days, though personally I think the wait will be a bit shorter. 

ProjectCreatorRate10k 1k
- The Legend of Zelda Project -Ragaru61.63 4
Land-Rover Defender 110Sheepo21.83 62
Mini Shop SeriesPekko56.75 70
Poptropica: Dr. Hare's LairPopCreators109.04 77
Batmobile Tumbler Minifig ScaleBrentWaller25.15 128
Macross VF-1 Valkyrie +Fast pack / Armored partsmaxvf114.09 303
BONSAI "Pine tree"AMKK26.87 34712
- MegaMan Project -Alatariel25.01 358
Labyrinth Marble MazeTouthomme12.53 518
GhostbustersTeeKay13.28 552
LEGO Bird SeriesDeTomaso8.68 597
Tiny TrucksRobiwan13.05 70617
Japanese old style architecturetaxon558.02 711
Legend of Zelda: Iron Knuckle EncounterWesTalbott11.86 748
Batman: Killer Croc's LairBrickQueen9.44 812
Modular Apple Storegotoandbuild5.88 938
Corellian Defender (Star Wars the Old Republic)GlenBricker9.3 938
LEGO PokemonKevinhink8.82 973
Small YELLOWbrickartist8.07 975
Apollo 11 Lunar Missionsuzuki7.35 983
Pokemon: Gyaradosretinence8.16 1021
MINECRAFT Microworld Add-Ons!dunc2378.49 1035
The Muppets!jedikermit7.26 1115
Invisible HandLDiEgo5.84 1146
Ultimate Collectors Series Lightsabersscott345676.64 1162
PianoHidaka5.5 1205
Train Turntable and modular RoundhouseFachmann7.59 127489
LEGO Mobile Designer for Nintendo 3DS & other devicesFrankie5.93 1294
Batman: Man-Bat's LabBrickQueen6.07 1355
Medusa's TempleStrider6.69 135610
Transforming Retro Video Game Accessoriesvonbrunk6.36 1370
Realistic treesPaultox5.41 1444
Roller CoasterLuc20005.98 1491
Douglas DC-3Ssorg5.46 1498
Legolympus (Mythology Theme with Mount Olympus Set)Kiffington5.46 1602
Adventure Time! Tree Fortdunc2375.69 161634
The Bat Risesvelociraptor5.03 1633
Modular Costume Store for Collectible MinifiguresBrentWaller5.46 1633
LEGO Settlers of CatanMichael4.6 1693
LEGO Architecture - Leaning Tower of Pisamoctown3.99 1740
Micro Scale Star Wars Scenestoomuchcaffe4.46 1805
UCS All Terrain Armoured TransportCavegod4.55 1890
Vampire GT SupercarCrowkillers3.84 1936
HONDA CBR1000rr REPSOL versionOryx4.79 2000121
Marvel Avengers Board GamePekko4.51 205963
New Short Minifigure PartsTakanuinuva4.51 2103108
The Glory of Romemminnitt3.46 2128
Red SquirrelVuurzoon3.7 2201
Modular Town Plan CinemaHinckley3.7 2217
Flying DutchmanSebeus3.7 2278
Mirage (realistically speaking)Nannan3.18 2296
Castle Crashersczar3.46 2296
The accurate DNA structureSICP__DNA4.08 2327122
Galaxy Commandreekardoo3.94 2430146
Disney MinifiguresKeTi3.94 2433149
Hardsuitsiron_S3.51 2460
Female Minifigure SetAlatariel3.37 2462
Lego StoreRayC3.51 2473
Ladyada's Workshop!adafruit2.94 2483
League of Legends of LegoAddam2.61 2577
Ancient World Civilizationsmatija3.32 2623
Western Town - Pif Paf Citykris_kelvin3.23 2645
Sandpeople PatrolDaiman3.65 2656190
Motorized Tumblermahj3.27 2719
LEGO Minecraft Board GameOrcaman43.32 274231
The Amazing Spider Man Ultra Poseable Action Figuremmccooey3.32 279685
Medieval Market StreetAlexP3.08 2871
RMS TitanicSsorg2.99 304737
Majestic Airship!Ssorg2.8 3066
Camper Van Forevernuno25002.89 318470
Architecture : Space Shuttle crawler transporterTeazza2.7 3267
LEGO Star Wars Micro Chess Setavisolo2.56 3342
Model of Hogwarts CastleScorpius2.8 3411197
Log Cabin - Two Seasons!Ssorg2.66 346279
Clone Wars Infantry PacksDAVID-HALL2.56 3472
Disney Parks - Castles Collectionlg20122.61 3674226
Desktop Series: Sky-FirongYIREN2.42 3679
Apple Store Vending Machinelgorlando2.56 3700184
MINI Cooper Mark ISheepo2.47 370158
Avengers: Iron Man Mark Vii Armormmccooey2.47 3846203
Minifigure hand with attachment pointpotluck2.47 3855211
Space Shuttle Launch ComplexTeazza2.37 3986189
Ford Model A Gangsters' Getaway Car; ????????A ???? ???BrickadierG2.32 4018139
Legend of Korra: Mecha Tank, Korra, Amon, Hiroshi, & Support...GlenBricker2.37 4054257
UCS Venator-Class Star Destroyerjourianbax2.28 4082134
UCS Star Wars Jedi Temple Coruscantdimitriniko2.04 4154
Sonic the Hedgehog (Green Hill Zone)gtrocks11112.28 4170223
Corner Candy Modular Buildingwaltzking2.18 422394
MacrofiguresCrashSanders2.14 427973
LOTR UCS ArgonathShayd_DeGrai2.18 4393265
Porsche 997 GT3Crowkillers2.09 4420114
Star Wars Season 4 Phase 2 Clone Battle PacksZspace2.14 4467262
Ironman Arc ReactorMr.Attacki2.14 4500294
Galaxy Diner and Empire Theatersonicstar1.9 4559
Back To The Future TrainGRusso2.04 4568156
Goblin Fortress RuinsAlexP2.04 4588176
Mini CooperSteven19801.9 4623
Bugatti Veyron 16.4 GrandsportSheepo1.9 4653
Lego Wall-E!!suzuki1.95 466348
Music Legends minifigure seriesdan832.04 4770358
Megadethmegzter1.99 4778255
The Drake's Head InnAlexP1.9 481376
NNN Newsmobiledavidpickett1.99 4834311
Wild EncountersWrinkledog1.85 487712
Lego Movie Chronicle Seriessuzuki1.85 489631
Angry Birds - RedChiukeung1.8 4910
Lego minifigures in action figure boxes! A new way to collec...Gruntbuddy1.85 5033169
Lego Mountain Bikingj4mes1.52 5095
Willys JEEPsuzuki1.71 5113
Sandtrooper on DewbackDaiman1.9 5117380
Lego DC Heroes Minifigures Series 1ManiacDude1.85 5137272
LOTR: Fall of the Witch KingShayd_DeGrai1.8 5346346
Themed Brick BoxOdd.Robot1.71 535289
BTTF - Biff Tannen's Fordm.togami1.76 5399286
James Bond's Aston Martin DB5JJOttens1.76 5467353
Avengers IRONMAN gantrymachine2.0choisanghun1.71 5495232
Lego Pikmin Memorial - KingArthur1.76 5506392
Dragon Slayerslizardman1.61 562939
The Tumbler Collectionvelociraptor1.66 5648226
Star Wars Opee Sea KillerPepaQuin1.57 5650
Marble RunPeterJ1.71 5698434
Cinematic Minifigure Seriessgtdisney551.61 5768178
Winter Village Train Depotted_andes1.66 5794372
Superman Man of Steel Fortress of Solitude MicrobuildBrickQueen1.66 5862440
Star Wars - Star Tours Starspeeder 3000HJR-Holland1.61 5922332
Legend of Zelda: King of Red Lionsflailx1.57 5986253
Medieval Travelling TheatreBobsy1.57 6036303
Classic Monorail RevampConchas1.61 6050460
T-Rex Skeletonjazlecraz1.57 6055322
LEGO Avengers: The Video GameAwesomeEthan1.57 6155423
HindenburgJJOttens1.47 620481
UCS Naboo Royal StarshipAnio1.47 622097
Portal Test Chambert-brick1.42 6282
Modular Police Stationezzkazz1.52 6283362
Prototype Attack Mecha Alpha Zerodanr1.38 6325
IRON MAN gantrymachinechoisanghun1.47 6381258
Arak-N3mahj1.42 642081
LEGO KirbyHappyman1.52 6439518
UCS Tron Light Cycleabathar61.42 6470132
BTTF - Hill Valley Courthousem.togami1.47 6485362
Bricklyn Borough Courthousesonicstar1.42 6615277
Flooded Temple RuinsHinckley1.42 6683345
ALA-N: Astronautical Lunar Android 9BrentWaller1.42 6816478
Micro-build Hogwarts CastleBeKindRewind1.33 686396
Lovely Sailboat!Ssorg1.38 6925403
T. Rex encounter from Jurassic Parkpmiaki1.38 6938416
the Rhinoceros by Theo Jansenkvanb1.28 6968
Deadpool Marvel Legends Scalemmccooey1.39 7056581
Appa from Avatar: The Last AirbenderOkay1.33 7103336
Micro Power Functions (motors, battery, valve, LED)midori1.28 7154123
Lamborghini GallardoCrowkillers1.33 7355588
Dump Truck 10x4Designer_Han1.23 7617300
Phineas and FerbAwesomeEthan1.0 7736
EVE Online Ships - Merlinczar1.09 7740
Wolfpack Castlereekardoo1.23 7757440
LOTR: Minas Tirith MicrobuildShayd_DeGrai1.23 7837520
MARS BASE (Modular with interiors)GRusso1.23 7894577
AV-7 Mobile Antivehicle CannonS.-Classic1.19 8210647
Hubble Space TelescopeGRusso1.14 8302408
LEGO Legend of KorraTheNerd1.14 8335440
MonorailHidaka1.09 8549292
Star Wars Universe PacksBorex1.09 8578321
Kashyyyk-Gunship 7676 UCS - Custom Star Wars 3d_predator1.09 8618361
Lotus 43 F1RoscoPC1.09 8702445
Jedi Mission Battle Pack-p-e-d-r-o-1.09 8724467
Rebel Snowspeederdrakmin1.09 8784527
Amusement Park Ride - Twist and Whirl Ride - now MOTORIZED!DerekMedina1.09 8833576
X Men: X Mansionphillipe1.09 8889632
Monopoly Board Game with PiecesEst.19491.09 8979723
Food TruckSpacySmoke1.04 9061407
Star Wars Combine-able Battle pack(s) Combinatorial Mini Set...samiam1.04 9143489
RESEARCH LAB SUBMARINE (Modular with interiors)GRusso1.04 9291637
General Grievous' Wheel BikeTBBCustoms1.0 9294294
Stark TowerMMystery921.04 9294640
Neuschwanstein Castle, Bavariat-brick1.04 9372718
Scooby DooFabuland741.04 9376723
Italian Style Renaissance Modular Buldingsmautara1.0 9580580
RancorDaiman0.95 9602128
Big Villavoyagetom1.0 9672672
Batman The Dark Knight Movie Masterpiece 1:5 Scalemmccooey1.0 9679679
Minifig furniture - living roomBrixe1.0 9682682
Avengers Captain Americachoisanghun1.0 9683683
Joker's Last Laughshotonce1.0 9755755
Starcraft 2 Siege Tank - Remote Controlbasilfawlty0.95 9832358

Not on the List? First, I tend to cut off projects after a certain day count, usually 10k. Additionally, I only monitor projects that have at least 200. Projects less than that are a little too volatile for proper assessment. Finally, I track several weeks worth of data to get these numbers, so you might not show up until your project has been post 200 for a few weeks.


  1. I would use a logistic regression instead of linear. It makes more sense, statistically speaking, since as the number of people supporting a project increases, the chance that someone who sees the project hasn't supported it decreases. Of course, it's still not a perfect extrapolation, because there is usually a spike in supporters right near the end, and there would be a slight increase in support rate when the project reaches the top six and is visible on the homepage.

  2. Thanks for the Feedback Tyler. That is actually the plan. The problem is getting enough data to make valid predictions.

    Only in the last few weeks have I been collecting enough data to get a solid read. On top of that only a handful of projects have reached 10k while I have been collecting that data. That data is itself skewed. With two projects approaching 10k so close they obviously fed of each other. Also, to further complicate the process, Mega Mand and Metroid were surging, also bringing in uncharacteristic support for Zelda.

    Many factors and little data.

    As I get more in I will develop a model for support but until then I try to make it clear that this data is about forecasting the current rate forward. It has not worked too bad, especially for pointing out to supporters the scale of time most projects live in.